We have developed a new framework using time-series analysis for dynamically assigning mobile network traffic prediction models in previously unseen wireless environments. Our framework selectively employs learned behaviors, outperforming any single model with over a 50% improvement relative to current studies. More importantly, it surpasses traditional approaches without needing prior knowledge of a cell. While this paper focuses on network traffic prediction using our adaptive forecasting framework, this framework can also be applied to other machine learning applications in uncertain environments.
The framework begins with unsupervised clustering of time-series data to identify unique trends and seasonal patterns. Subsequently, we apply supervised learning for traffic volume prediction within each cluster. This specialization towards specific traffic behaviors occurs without penalties from spatial and temporal variations. Finally, the framework adaptively assigns trained models to new, previously unseen cells. By analyzing real-time measurements of a cell, our framework intelligently selects the most suitable cluster for that cell at any given time, with cluster assignment dynamically adjusting to spatio-temporal fluctuations.
J-11
Multivariate, Multi-step, and Spatiotemporal Traffic Prediction for NextG Network Slicing under SLA Constraints
This study presents a spatiotemporal traffic prediction approach for NextG mobile networks, ensuring the service-level agreements (SLAs) of each network slice. Our approach is multivariate, multi-step, and spatiotemporal. Leveraging 20 radio access network (RAN) features, peak traffic hour data, and mobility-based clustering, we propose a parametric SLA-based loss function to guarantee an SLA violation rate. We focus on single-cell, multi-cell, and slice-based prediction approaches and present a detailed comparative analysis of their performances, strengths, and limitations. First, we address the application of single-cell and multi-cell training architectures. While single-cell training offers individual cell-level prediction, multi-cell training involves training a model using traffic from multiple cells from the same or different base stations. We show that the single-cell approach outperforms the multi-cell approach and results in test loss improvements of 11.4\% and 38.1\% compared to baseline SLA-based and MAE-based models, respectively. Next, we explore slice-based traffic prediction. We present single-slice and multi-slice methods for slice-based downlink traffic volume prediction, arguing that multi-slice prediction offers a more accurate forecast. The slice-based model we introduce offers substantial test loss improvements of 28.2\%, 36.4\%, and 55.6\% compared to our cell-based model, the baseline SLA-based model, and the baseline MAE-based model, respectively.
C-22
Multivariate and Multi-step Traffic Prediction for NextG Networks with SLA Violation Constraints
Evren Tuna, and Alkan Soysal
In International Balkan Conference on Communications and Networking (BalkanCom), Jun 2023
This paper focuses on predicting downlink (DL) traffic volume in mobile networks while minimizing overprovisioning and meeting a given service-level agreement (SLA) violation rate. We present a multivariate, multi-step, and SLA-driven approach that incorporates 20 different radio access network (RAN) features, a custom feature set based on peak traffic hours, and handover-based clustering to leverage the spatiotemporal effects. In addition, we propose a custom loss function that ensures the SLA violation rate constraint is satisfied while minimizing overprovisioning. We also perform multi-step prediction up to 24 steps ahead and evaluate performance under both single-step and multi-step prediction conditions. Our study makes several contributions, including the analysis of RAN features, the custom feature set design, a custom loss function, and a parametric method to satisfy SLA constraints.
C-21
Multivariate Spatio-temporal Cellular Traffic Prediction with Handover Based Clustering
Evren Tuna, and Alkan Soysal
In Conference on Information Sciences and Systems (CISS), Mar 2022
We consider an RNN-based traffic volume prediction, which is a critical problem for network slice management and resource allocation in slicing-enabled next generation cellular networks. We propose to use a novel cost function that takes SLA violations into account. Our approach is multivariate and spatio-temporal in three aspects. First, we consider the effects of several other RAN features in a cell besides the traffic volume. Second, we introduce feature vectors based on peak hours of the day and days of the week. Third, we introduce feature vectors based on incoming handover statistics from the neighboring cells. Our results show about 60\% improvement over MAE-based univariate LSTM models and about 20\% improvement over SLA-based univariate models.
J-10
Age of Information in G/G/1/1 Systems: Age Expressions, Bounds, Special Cases, and Optimization
We consider the average age of information in G/G/1/1 systems under two service discipline models. In the first model, if a new update arrives when the service is busy, it is blocked; in the second model, a new update preempts the current update in service. For the blocking model, we first derive an exact age expression for G/G/1/1 systems. Then, using the age expression for G/G/1/1 systems, we calculate average age expressions for special cases, i.e., M/G/1/1 and G/M/1/1 systems. We observe that deterministic interarrivals minimize the average age of G/M/1/1 systems for a given mean interarrival time. Next, for the preemption in service model, we first derive an exact average age expression for G/G/1/1 systems. Then, similar to blocking discipline, using the age expression for G/G/1/1 systems, we calculate average age expressions for special cases, i.e., M/G/1/1 and G/M/1/1 systems. Average age for G/M/1/1 can be written as a summation of two terms, the first of which depends only on the first and second moments of interarrival times and the second of which depends only on the service rate. In other words, interarrival and service times are decoupled. We prove that deterministic interarrivals are optimum for G/M/1/1 systems for a given mean interarrival time. On the other hand, we observe for non-exponential service times that the optimal distribution of interarrival times depends on the relative values of the mean interarrival time and the mean service time. Finally, we propose a simple to calculate upper bound to the average age for the preemption in service discipline.
In this paper, we introduce nonoverlay microcell/macrocell planning that is optimally designed for improving energy efficiency of the overall heterogeneous cellular network. We consider two deployment strategies. The first one is based on a fixed hexagonal grid and the second one is based on a stochastic geometry. In both of our models, microcells are placed in those areas where the received signal power levels of macrocell common pilot channels are below a certain threshold. Thus, interference between microcells and macrocells is minimized. As a result, addition of microcells increases the achieved number of bits per unit energy. Under such deployment assumptions, we investigate the effects of certain parameters on the energy efficiency. These parameters include the user traffic, the Intersite Distance (ISD), the size of microcells and the number of microcells per macrocell for the grid model, and macrocell density and microcell density for the stochastic model. The results of our performance analyses show that utilizing microcells in a sparse user scenario is worse for the energy efficiency whereas it significantly improves both energy and spectral efficiencies in a dense user scenario. Another interesting observation is that it is possible to choose an optimum number of microcells for a given macrocell density.
C-14
Energy and Spectral Efficient Microcell Deployment in Heterogeneous Cellular Networks
Mahmut Demirtas, and Alkan Soysal
In IEEE Vehicular Technology Conference (VTC), May 2015